New analysis: Benelux region and Northwest-Germany to be stand-out winner from European military logistics boom, according to GARBE Industrial
News 20/07/2026
- Expected €300bn rise in European defence budgets could increase occupational demand for warehouses by 75 million square meters (sq m) within the next five years
- Antwerp and Rotterdam best placed to offer ideal conditions for military logistics and hold great potential for defence-related real estate associated with military transport (not necessarily linked to production)
- Karlsruhe, Mannheim, Hamburg and Duisburg also rank highly on suitability for warehouse space to cater to ‘mobility-driven’ defence-related demand
New analysis has identified cities in Belgium and the Netherlands as the main beneficiaries of increased military logistics activity driven by higher defence spending. According to GARBE Industrial, one of the leading platforms for logistics and light industrial real estate in Germany and wider Europe, defence-related real estate demand can be divided into two clusters: military logistics (mobility-driven) and manufacturing-related demand.
While certain factors overlap with the broader industrial & logistics (I&L) sector, defence-related activities put particular emphasis on security, proximity, connectivity, flexibility, resilience, and the density of infrastructure networks. As a result, locations clustered around Europe’s key entry points, and the inland infrastructure arteries with strong multimodal transport links, are set to witness the most uplift from mobility-driven demand.
To identify those strategic military corridors with the greatest relevance for I&L real estate, GARBE’s research team applied a set of five parameters that combine operational, infrastructure, regulatory, and development feasibility factors.
Each parameter directly relates to the potential attractiveness of locations (at the Local Administration Unit (LAU) level) for investment and development, with a weighting to reflect the relative importance of each factor, based on EU policy frameworks and strategic priorities, as well as established I&L and infrastructure requirements. The five factors are:
- TEN-T (core trans-European transport network) Corridor Proximity (25% weighting)
- Multimodal Connectivity (25% weighting)
- Motorway Accessibility (25% weighting)
- Terrain Suitability – Average gradient (20% weighting)
- Cross-Border Efficiency – National customs efficiency (5% weighting)
LAUs are then calculated a LOFIN score. LOFIN is a data-driven analytical model created by GARBE Industrial that assesses the attractiveness of municipalities at the LAU level.
While only 6% of the total landmass across the 25 analysed European countries achieves a score above 5 (max 7), approximately two-thirds of the landmass in the Netherlands and Belgium score above 5. This compares to 22% for Germany and 11% for Italy – the only of the Europe-5 economies to break into double digits.
As a major crossroads for flows of goods within and into Europe, the Benelux markets rank consistently high across all five parameters, underlining their role as a critical military mobility corridor. All Benelux regions have scores above 6.7 (maximum score of 7).
GARBE Industrial’s analysis demonstrates the importance of proximity to ports along the Hamburg–Le Havre range and beyond for mobility-related assets. The largest ports in the Benelux region (Rotterdam and Antwerp) and their direct hinterland rank highest in GARBE’s analysis. However, other ports within the Hamburg–Le Havre range — including Calais and Le Havre in France and Bremerhaven and Hamburg in Germany — also achieve LOFIN scores above 6.
In addition, several smaller but strategically important ports in Central and Eastern Europe stand out, such as the Port of Klaipėda in Lithuania (ice-free and located near the Suwałki Gap; LOFIN score of 5.4) and the Port of Constanţa in Romania (the largest port on the Black Sea and located near a key NATO logistics hub; LOFIN score of 4.7).
Top 10 key markets (NUTS 2, country code)
| LOFIN Score 1-7 | |
|
7.0 |
| 2. Antwerp (Prov. Antwerp, BE) | 6.7 |
| 3. Amsterdam (Noord-Holland, NL) | 6.7 |
| 4. Strasbourgh (Alsace, FR) | 6.6 |
| 5. Karlsruhe/Mannheim (Karlsruhe, DE) | 6.6 |
| 6. Duisburg (Duesseldorf, DE) | 6.6 |
| 7. Hamburg (Hamburg, DE) | 6.6 |
| 8. Paris (Ile-de-France, FR) | 6.4 |
| 9. Vienna (Niederoesterreich, AT) | 6.4 |
| 10. Hannover (Hannover, DE) | 6.4 |
Total defence equipment procurement in Europe is projected to increase by almost €152 billion, reaching €704 billion by 2030. In an earlier white paper, GARBE Industrial predicted demand for I&L space per €1 billion of defence investment ranges from approximately 245,000 sq m to 490,000 sq m, meaning the increase in demand across the region could range from 37 million sq m to 75 million within the next five years. As many of these facilities will be built-to-own, GARBE predicts only one-fifth (20%) will be accessible for the institutional real estate investment market, representing an incremental demand potential of 7.5 million to 14.9 million sq m.
Tobias Kassner, Head of Research at GARBE Industrial, said: “The occupier demand potential for industrial & logistics (I&L) real estate from European rearmament is significant – projected to between 37 million sq m to 75 million sq m across the region according to our earlier analysis. Understanding the key arteries and patterns of military mobility is crucial, as I&L real estate demand will likely be concentrated within a more limited geographic footprint. “
“For I&L stakeholders, this means that strategic investments and development should prioritise sites along high-scoring corridors that combine multimodal connectivity, highway access, and proximity to key ports and entry points, thereby maximizing their potential to capture emerging demand.”
-ENDS-
For further information, please contact Tripoint: tom@tripointstrategic.com / +44 (0)7722440999.
The full white paper can be downloaded here: https://www.garbe-industrial.de/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Defence_Whitepaper_eng.pdf
Other GARBE research papers, including the cited analysis on projected defence-related demand, can be accessed here: https://www.garbe-industrial.de/en/download-center/